A new study asserts that an expected deficit on the horizon of full-powered midband spectrum could have numerous negative consequences.
The study, “Securing the Future of U.S. Wireless Networks: The Looming Spectrum Crisis,” suggests that with this spectrum shortfall comes risks to the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP), to current technological innovation, and even to national security. The report was produced by Accenture and commissioned by CTIA, the wireless industry association.
There already has been an 89% increase in wireless data usage since 2021, and that is expected to triple by 2029. By 2027, networks will be unable to meet nearly one-quarter of traffic demand in high-traffic areas during peak hours. The way to meet demand that is exponentially increasing is through more 5G-ready spectrum, the study said, since without it network performance will be degraded.
“Wireless is the engine of America’s economy and the foundation of our global economic competitiveness. But our growing spectrum deficit presents a growing risk to American economic growth and innovation. America needs a pipeline of full-power, midband spectrum auctions to meet demand, grow our economy and secure America’s 5G leadership,” said CTIA’s president and CEO Meredith Atwell Baker, in a press release about the study.
A lack of adequate spectrum will hinder network performance, leading to significant disruptions for both consumers and businesses. These issues may range from interrupted video to jeopardized emergency communication systems. They could cost the U.S. $300 billion annually in lost opportunity, or more than $1.4 trillion of potential economic growth by 2035, the study said.
“If the U.S. does not close the spectrum gap, consumers will be left without access to next-generation products and services” such as those incorporating artificial intelligence. Studies predict that wireless networks will fall behind mobile AI demands, with data traffic exceeding capacity by 2028, and one-third of traffic from AI-enabled devices unmet by 2029.
Additionally, a gap in spectrum availability gives countries other than the U.S. an opportunity to set wireless standards of the future, the study claimed.
It also said that limited spectrum heightens dependence on foreign technologies, which could potentially endanger U.S. critical infrastructure and national security.
A single-page briefing issued by CTIA and Accenture explained that U.S. policymakers must address and resolve the crisis by licensing additional midband spectrum from 3.3 – 8.5 GHz for commercial use. “This will provide enterprises, consumers and the country with the reliable wireless networks required to maintain the U.S.’ global technology leadership in 5G and future wireless generations, and to sustain the productivity engine of the U.S. economy.”
Recently, the FCC unanimously approved a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on creation of an auction of 5G-capable spectrum. The proceeds from an eventual auction are intended to support the “Rip-and-Replace” program, to reimburse providers with 10 million or fewer subscribers for the expense associated with removing, replacing, and discarding equipment from vendors that was found to be a security threat.
